Late Round Picks Putting Up First Round Numbers?

Hitting has been at a premium for some of the best hitters to start this season. A lot of postponements have turned the season’s first month into a month that has been dominated by pitching. Only now at the end of April are we starting to see the league’s better hitters get going. This will hurt their fantasy production over the course of the year, however, as we move into May, be prepared to see more runs scored as the weather starts to get warmer.

Looking at some of the best hitters in fantasy right now, only a few first and second round picks have made the list of the top 30. The number one fantasy player through 3 weeks has obviously been Alex Rodriguez who has been pummeling the ball to all fields. Not too far behind him is Jose Reyes, who has more triples than doubles through three weeks. After that, there is a significant distance in fantasy points from the hitter in third, Carlos Beltran. This isn’t where I am trying to make my point.

Through three weeks, you are getting more out of Luis Gonzalez than you are from Matt Holliday; Edgar Renteria more than Miguel Tejada; and Eric Byrnes more than Carl Crawford. Guess where Chase Utley ranks amongst second basemen so far this season? He is 5th best behind guys like Kyle Johnson, Marcus Giles, and Ian Kinsler. These three guys were more than likely drafted after the 15th round, whereas Utley was drafted in the first round.
Another example of this recent inflation of points from late round draft picks is at first base. The list was endless with the number of guys that fill up first base. However, to everyone’s surprise the number one first basemen through three weeks is Justin Morneau. On fantasy lists he was probably 5th or 6th best when it came time to ranking these first basemen. Adrian Gonzalez who is an extremely young talent at first base is in front of Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, Mark Teixeira, and Derek Lee in fantasy points so far.

Teams who drafted the second tier talent at each position seem to be getting more production out of their players than those who went after the top tier players. What this should tell you is that we may be in for a year like we had last. This is good for fantasy because it give everyone a chance to stay competitive. We all know that the guys drafted in the first and second rounds will be at the top by season’s end, but I feel that the gap is closing between the second tier talent and the first tier talent. Continue to watch the talent pool, because this year it may not be a bad idea to have a Ryan Church or David DeJesus. In fact, you may get more production out of them then a Jeff Francoeur or Nick Swisher.

On a different note, it would appear that the Phillies are doing the best they can and are turning around this early season funk they are in. Ryan Howard finally got his first homerun on Sunday; maybe he will begin to heat up. Unfortunately, for the people who draft Alfonso Soriano, you may not see him hit his first homerun for you until May. What a big let- down off a 40-40 year, possibly the worst we have ever seen.