Sunday, March 25, 2007

Looking Beyond The Top Tier Pitchers

Drafting pitchers can sometimes be a problem in fantasy. The top tier pitchers in fantasy are usually drafted within the first three rounds leaving you a laundry list of guys that are far behind the 6 or 7 top tier pitchers. A few seasons ago, I would be talking about guys like Rich Harden, Zack Greinke, and Dontrelle Willis. Last season, it was Justin Verlander, Cole Hamels, and Josh Johnson for a good part of the season that were guys that were waiver wire pickups that helped change your pitching staff into one of the better one’s in the league. Now who do you look to this season? Well here’s a list of a few of guys that you might be interested in that have a chance to change your pitching staff during draft day.

Erik Bedard- 15 wins last season with an ERA of 3.76 in the American League East. He’s now 27 years old and is entering his third year with Leo Mazzone as his pitching coach. Baltimore’s staff is young and has the potential to do some very good things in the coming season. I expect his win total to climb by a couple and his strikeout total to rise with it.

Daniel Cabrera- So this guy’s has been on a list like this for each of the past few seasons, I know. However, it would seem that he has his act together. We all know the potential he has, however, the problem has always been control. In 20 innings this spring he has only walked 3 batters, and has struck out 16. He, like Bedard, is also an up and coming product of Mazzone. Perhaps this year he shows his real potential and has that break out year. It would seem that his spring numbers appear that way.

Ervin Santana- Santana has been a guy in the back of the Angel’s rotation for his first two years. Now in year three he has been moved up to 3 in the rotation. It would seem that this year will be the year that he shows that he can be one of the better pitchers in the league. He raised his win total by 4 last year from 12 to 16 in 2006, and lowered his ERA from 4.66 to 4.29. This year looks like he breaks out n tries to be the team’s number one starter. I expect his win total to be around 18, and his era to be just under 4. Expect a big year from Santana.

Chuck James- He had great season for the Braves last year. He went 11-4 with a 3.78 ERA. He had a respectable 91 strikeouts in 119 innings last season to go along with his other numbers. Like Santana, he is now a number 3 starter for the Braves. This team’s pedigree in the last decade has always been pitching. He is capable of getting guys out without over powering them. (Sounds familiar right? Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine) Obviously I am not comparing him to either one of these two but he will do very well this season. He is pitching to a 1.80 ERA this spring. Look for him in the middle to later part of the draft.

Anibal Sanchez- The young Marlin’s starter went 10-3 last year, winning 5 of those games in the final month of the season. He also threw a no hitter during that stretch of games. His 2.83 ERA was just another great ERA that the surprising Marlin’s staff had last season. Now that Josh Johnson will be missing some time due to injury, Sanchez will have to step it up for the first part of the year. The Marlin’s had a good team, and will be competitive in 2007. Sanchez is a very good middle round draft pick if you can get him.

Adam Wainwright- Converted closer for the Cardinals now in the opening day rotation. This spring he is 2-2 with a 1.25 ERA. He hit the scene last year and did very well out of the bullpen for the Cardinals. It would seem that he can do just as good in the rotation. He has some great stuff, including a very good curveball. Like all the other players that made this list he is a middle round draft pick with a potential to do some great things for the defending champs.

Matt Cain- This guy is only 22 years old. He led all rookies with 13 wins last year, and had a very good strikeout total, 179 in 190 innings last season. Barry Zito coming over from Oakland may help him avoid the pressure of having to become the ace of the Giants staff. I expect him to win 15 or more games this year and his ERA being under 4, with his strikeout ratio to be slightly higher than last season. Cain, like everyone else on this list has potential to become a great pitcher. At his age, he may be able to become a top pitcher in the entire National League. He can make a great keeper in leagues that have that rule. Look for him in the upper-middle part of the draft.

That’s a looks at some middle round pitching that can really help your staff in 2007. These guys are very young and have a lot of potential. The only way they can answer that is with their performance on the field. They are all middle round draft picks with the potential to pitch like guys taken in the first 5 to 8 rounds. Last year it was Verlander and Hamels on this list, and they are now drafted in the first 10 rounds. I expect these guys to be in the same position that Hamels and Verlander were in last year.

Sunday, March 18, 2007

Infield vs Outfield: Where is the best talent?

When planning a draft strategy there are many different things that you need to look at. In recent articles I have talked about why it is necessary to draft the top pitchers before drafting hitters. However, what do you do if you are drafting right in the middle and aren’t really interested in drafting pitchers? I would suggest to you to go after the best infield you can possibly have.
Looking at the top 50 draft picks (based on average draft position), I counted 23 out of the top 50 draft picks come out of the infield. The outfielders only take 15 out of the top 50. What this should obviously tell you is that it is important to draft some of the top infielders and have an average outfield than the other way around.
I have been doing some practice drafts on various websites before my biggest draft of the season on Saturday. Experimenting different strategies I came to the conclusion that the infield is where I decided to focus the most attention on. As strong as first and third base are this season, and as, many prospects that there are at short and second, it is a good idea to draft the premiere guys at this position.
Here is a look at two teams that I drafted during this time. Each features a basic 3 man outfield and a four man infield. Team 1: Chase Utley, Mark Teixeira, Garret Atkins, Freddy Sanchez, Hideki Matsui, Juan Pierre, and Jeff Francoeur. Team 2: Derek Lee, Robinson Cano, Scott Rolen, Jose Reyes, Carl Crawford, Carlos Lee, and Ichiro Suzuki.
Breaking down the first team is easy. Chase Utley is by far the best second baseman of all the players at the position in the league. Garret Atkins was a top 3 fantasy third baseman statistically speaking in 2006. Mark Teixeira struggled during the first half and was one of the best players in the second half of the season in 2006. Besides we know he is a top 5 first basemen this season anyway. Freddy Sanchez won the batting title in the National League in 2006. The outfield of Matsui, Pierre and Francoeur can be looked at as mediocre or above average at best. The strength at infield is unmatched in the league that this team is in. This is hard to argue with a top 5 guy at every position in the infield with the exception of shortstop. The outfield obviously isn’t great; however it is good enough to compete with other outfields in the league.
The second team features an average infield, and an outfield that is very good. Carl Crawford, Carlos Lee, and Ichiro Suzuki are guys that combined together are gone by the fourth or fifth round. Crawford and Lee have been drafted in the first two rounds in every league this year. Jose Reyes is the only guy that sticks out in the infield because he is a top 5 overall fantasy pick this season. Robinson Cano as you know is ranked as my second best second basemen, and has potential to do great things. Scott Rolen and Derek Lee are the other two guys that round out the infield. Lee went down with an injury last season that made him miss most of the season. This put a lot of question marks as to whether or not he will be the same guy he was two years ago which was a triple crown contender for a while in the National league. Scott Rolen has fallen from being an elite player at his position. His numbers are still above average and he will produce for your team, just not on the level he did five years ago.

The bottom line is that you have a better chance at succeeding in a league with an infield that features some of the best guys at their positions and an outfield that will be competitive. With the right pick on draft day (Team one was the 8th pick, team two was the third), there is no reason to believe that you can’t grab these guys and show that your infield is one of the best in your league. If your strategy on draft day is to go after the top hitters in the game and get average pitching, then you should look to the infield before the outfield.

Sunday, March 11, 2007

Fantasy Baseball 2007: The Fantasy team that isn’t drafted.

Today was my first money league draft of the 2007 season. I ended up with the fourth pick and a team that features a lot of power and a lot of starting pitching. However there is plenty of talent out there that was not drafted. Considering this was a draft that featured 11 teams you would think that someone would pick up these players. The following list is a list that features guys that have a draft percentage that is over 65% that were not drafted this afternoon. These players aren’t number one guys; however they have the potential to be sleepers or good roster fillers.

Catchers: Ramon Hernandez, Johnny Estrada, Bengie Molina, Gerald Laird, David Ross, Mike Napoli

First Base: Conor Jackson, Dan Johnson, Kevin Youkilis, Shea Hillenbrand, Mike Jacobs

Second Base: Marcus Giles, Placido Polanco, Mark DeRosa, Ronnie Belliard, Jose Lopez.

Short Stop: Khalil Greene, Jason Bartlett, Omar Vizquel, Jack Wilson, J.J. Hardy.

Third Base: Alex Gordon, Pedro Feliz, Andy Marte, Brandon Inge, Mike Lowell.

Outfielders: Jose Guillen, Milton Bradley, Randy Winn, Chris Duncan, David DeJesus, Geoff Jenkins, Jeremy Hermida, Andre Either, Matt Kemp, Juan Encarnacion, Luis Gonzalez.

Starting Pitchers: Mark Buehrle, Livan Hernandez, Noah Lowry, Scott Olsen, Ricky Nolasco, Oliver Perez, Jamie Moyer, Jeff Suppan, Gustavo Chacin, Chad Billingsley.

Relief Pitchers: Ryan Dempster, Bob Wickman, Todd Jones, Chad Qualls, Mike Gonzalez, Scott Proctor, Justin Duchscherer, Matt Capps, Duaner Sanchez, Jesse Crain, Dennys Reyes.

As I mentioned, these guys are not particularly what you have in mind when you looking at the number one player at each position. However, these guys tend to bring depth and quality to your roster, and could help you on draft day. These players tend to be taken in the middle and late round of drafts as they should. There is a lot of young talent on each of these lists. On draft day, especially in keeper leagues and leagues that feature a lot of depth, you might want to consider some of these guys to help fill your roster and/or bench positions. There is a lot of quality out there if you are willing to look for it. The majority of people don’t pay attention to these guys and they are usually good role players on a fantasy roster and can help you win your league in 2007.

Sunday, March 4, 2007

Where are all the secondbasemen?

Let's face it, second base has been one of the worst positions in fantasy for a very long time. In past seasons, you needed to have a guy like Alfonso Soriano or Bret Boone to feel like you had a guy that can help your team at this position. This season seems to be the same thing. Here are my top 10 at this position, with a few other notable candidates to fill the roster spot in the coming season.

1. Chase Utley. Obviously this guy has to top my list. Back to back seasons of 100+ RBI totals. This guy is still very young and will get better with age. He put on 20 pounds in the off season so expect him to reach a new career high in home runs in the coming season. In 2006 he put up 32 home runs, 102 RBIs, 15 stolen bases, a .309 batting average and scored 131 runs. You can expect his 2007 totals to be around the same or even better. He is far ahead of everyone else that has second base eligibility in 2007.

2. Robinson Cano. You can argue that Dan Uggla can be at this position, however, they don't say that this guy is going to contend for a batting title some day for nothing. Missing time last season, he still managed 15 home runs, 78 RBIs, 5 stolen bases, a .342 batting average (3rd in the American league), and 62 runs scored. He also put up 41 doubles last season. Cano is an all around hitter that can hit the ball to all fields. However, his power numbers aren't quite where they should be yet. He's a solid hitter at the position and you wouldn't mind having him on your team.

3. Dan Uggla. Uggla was nothing but a waiver wire pick up in the 2006 season, but when you picked him up you kept him for the rest of the season. He hit 27 home runs, which was 2nd to Utley, drove in 90, stole 6, hit .281, and scored 105 runs. He looks like he can become a very forceful bat in the youthful marlins lineup. Batting him in front of Cabrera he should see plenty of pitches this season. I expect his numbers to go up slightly in the 2007 season, but he isn't where Utley is yet as far as draft position. Like Cano, you shouldn't have a problem drafting him and hoping he produces because he will.

4. Josh Bartfield. What do you make of a guy that had 13 home runs, 58 RBIs, 21 stolen bases, a .280 batting average, and 72 runs scored? Well he is now a Cleveland Indian. With Hafner n Martinez in the lineup batting behind him, you can expect his runs scored to go up without question. On top of that, now that his out of San Diego, where you can hit the ball a mile in some parts of the park and it wouldn't be a home run, Jacob's field is more hitter friendly. As far as fantasy goes, having a guy that steals 20 bases can have a lot more value than we think. Don't be surprised if he goes 20-20 this season, and scores around 90-100 runs. Any guy like that is worth having on you roster. That is why he's 4 on this list.

5. Brian Roberts. 2005 was a career year for Roberts. He hit 18 home runs, drove in 73, and scored 92 runs. In 2006 his numbers went down. He only hit 10 home runs, drove in 55, and scored on 85 runs. However, his stolen base total went from 27 to 36. That is what Roberts brings to your team. He isn't a power hitting second basemen, however, he is always one of the top stolen base guys in the league. This season, I expect his power numbers to rise, and his runs scored total to rise, especially since the O's got Aubrey Huff. there's a lot of good hitters in the O's lineup and Roberts has to be a catalyst this season to get them going. If he does that you will see all of his offensive numbers go up in 2007.

6. Brandon Phillips. Two seasons ago, this guy wasn't even a starter in Cleveland. In 2006 he became a full time second basemen in Cincinnati and he was more productive than expected. He hit 17 home runs, had 75 RBIs, stole 25 bases, batted .276, and scored 65 runs. Putting on a little weight in the off season, it looks like Phillips wants to be one of the bigger bats in the Reds' lineup in 2007. Cincinnati's stadium is a hitter friendly park, so I expect his power numbers to go up. However, if his power numbers are going up, his stolen base total might not be as high this season. This brings his value down. He is definitely a top 10 second basemen, and who knows he might hit you 20-25 home runs and drive in 85-90 runs. He will put up good numbers and be a solid bat all year round.

7. Tadahito Iguchi. He is one of the more consistent guys at this position than any other guy who plays it. In 2006, he had 18 homers, 67 RBIs, a .286 batting average and 97 runs scored. His stolen base total wasn't bad, he stole 11. He is a slightly above average baseball player. Won't hit many home runs, or drive in that many guys, or steal that many bases. However, he will stay consistent which is never a bad thing. You know what your getting when you draft this guy. He doesn't stand out or have any real potential to amaze people but he will get the hit when you need it or the RBI when you need it which is always a good thing. More than likely his numbers will stay right around the same this year as they did last year.

8. Jeff Kent. Don't think I wasn't going to put this guy in the top 10. Some may argue that he is still a top 5 hitter at his position. In 2006, he hit 14 home runs, drove in 68, batted .292, and scored 61 runs. The reason why I have him at 8 is because we don't know that how many good years that Kent has left at his age. The Dodgers have a good lineup with a lot of good hitters both young and old, so Kent will see his fair share of chances to produce at the plate. He has been one of the more consistent hitters at 2nd for a very long time, but I think that his numbers are slowly going down, or they will stay right around where they are in Kent's final years of his career. Still always a good pick but don't expect his production to be the same as what they were in year's past.

9. Jose Lopez. He is an up and coming hitter at his position. The Mariner's second baseman has a lot of potential to be a good hitter in that lineup. He hit 10 home runs, had 79 RBIs, and hit .281 in 2006. He also scored 78 runs in '06. In 2007, he will be entering his fourth year in the league. He now has a full time position on the team and will have the ability to put up even better numbers this year than he did last season. It is possible that he can be one of the break out players of the 2007 season. He can be one of the sleepers in the draft. He numbers won't go up too much this season, but I feel like they will go up and can continue to rise in future seasons.

10. Marcus Giles. Like Kent, he was a top five second baseman only 3 seasons ago. He batting average has dropped ever year since 2003, and his home run total has fallen as well. In 2006, Giles hit 11 home runs, had 60 RBIs, stole 10 bases, scored 87 runs, and had a .261 batting average. Despite not being the same hitter he once was,he is now getting a fresh start in San Diego. His power numbers will probably be the same as '06, but I think he will have better production in all the other major categories. He is also playing with his brother in 2007, which will also help him considering Brian has also been a goes hitter.

That rounds out my top 10 a the second base position. However if you can't grab any of these guys there are also some other notable players at the position you might want to consider. Guys like Ian Kinsler, Ray Durham, Orlando Hudson, Mark De Rosa, and Craig Biggio are players that are always good as a back up plan if you can't grab any of the other 10. Second base is a weak position this year. This position will come around some year with all the young talent at the position. That's a look at second base for the 2007 season.