Today I was preparing myself for my first draft of this 2007 season and I had a specific strategy in mind. I felt that it was absolutely necessary to take pitching as early as you can. Naturally in the first round or two the majority of the picks are the top hitters in the game today. But what about those people who are taking Johan Santana, Chris Carpenter, Roy Oswalt, and all the other top notch starters in the first or second round? Those managers are the ones who know that there is a lot of depth in a lot of positions this season. It is safe to say that there are six top notch pitchers: Santana, Carpenter, Halladay, Oswalt, Webb, and Zambrano. In whatever order you would like to put them in, those are your top starting pitchers in the league. The same can be said about the closer’s position, there are really only seven top closers in the game; Rivera, Nathan, Rodriguez, Ryan, Jenks, Hoffman, and Wagner.
Other than these thirteen pitchers, the other pitchers around the leagues are all in the same bucket. We all didn’t see Justin Verlander as a legitimate threat until mid season. The same can be said about the entire rotation that the Florida Marlins had by July, as well as a guy like Cole Hamels for the Phillies. The bottom line is there are plenty of starters that come around through the year, but for the past few seasons the six guys I mentioned always seem to be at the top of the list in all the major categories at season’s end. Santana is head and shoulders above every other pitcher around, but the other five are always close together at season’s end as far as the stats are concerned. It would be wise to get your hands on one of these guys because you never know who will show up and who won’t throughout the year. It’s nice to know that you have one of these guys, because they will always help your pitching staff and give you a chance to be leading the pitching categories throughout the year.
As far as the closers are concerned, the seven closers I mentioned are the anchors to your relief pitching. These seven closers, with the exception of Rivera (but we all know he’s a leader on this list), had 36 or more saves, and only blew 5 or less saves. As far as the other 23 teams’ closers are concerned, their jobs are either bullpen by committee, or guys that can be replaced with one bad week or two. However, we all know that these seven closers top the list when you’re looking at fantasy closers to draft. That’s why you would want to have one of these guys, because you know that they are more than likely to keep their jobs all year round. The others at this position may or may not be a gamble, but their numbers aren’t going to look like these guys’ at season’s end. You can say, Huston Street, but he blew 11 saves, Jason Isringhausen was pretty good too, but he blew 10 saves. As for Mike Gonzalez, he went 24 for 24, a great start to a young career but we will have to see if he keeps it up. There are a few guys like Gonzalez around the league, but they got their jobs mid-season and this year we will have to see if they can handle the grind of a 162 game season. Maybe next year they will make the top of the list.
Like I was saying, it is a great strategy to have one or two of these pitchers to help anchor your staff. This season, there is a lot of depth in positions that didn’t have depth like this before. Shortstop has a lot of depth this season. Second base is also a competitive position, outside of Chase Utley obviously. First base has some of the top hitters in the game as well as some of the top young hitters in the game. The outfield has endless talent that you can draft from first round to last. With all of that hitting around this league there isn’t enough talent like that at the pitcher’s position to match it. That’s why I feel that it is a good idea to draft some top notch pitching early this year. You don’t need to look that far to find hitting to match up with you opponents. However, you need to look a lot harder to find pitching to match up with the teams that have the elite pitching. Especially if they have two start weeks. So if you ask me who would I take early, pitchers or hitters? I would tell you to try and get your hands on the top pitchers in the game. After last year you should know that there is plenty of hitting to go around. However, there is not enough pitching to match up to it.
Sunday, February 25, 2007
Monday, February 19, 2007
Fantasy Baseball 2007: Key pitcher injuries to pay attention to in 2007
Starting pitching in fantasy baseball is everywhere. There isn’t a time where you can’t find a starter to pick up that has a two start week or a good match up from the waiver wire. However, on draft day, there are some injured pitchers that you may want to get familiar with, because they may not be as effective as they were in previous season.
Two headliners that top the list are two “aces” known as Kerry Wood, and Mark Prior. These two former studs can amaze you with their numbers, as well as break you with all the injuries they find themselves in. While at any time they can return to form the chances of them coming back to what they used to be are very slim.
Prior is expected to compete at spring training for a spot in the rotation, where just a few seasons ago they felt he was the anchor of the rotation. You would anticipate that he would have a leg up on them because he is still young and has a tremendous upside. However, fantasy mangers shouldn’t put any value on him as an early round pick, if he is still around in the later part of the draft he would be a risk worth making. Do not use an early pick on him there are plenty of others out there.
As for Kerry Wood, his injury list is too long to go through, every week it seems like it is something else. His recent jacuzzi incident makes me wonder if he will ever keep himself from being snake bitten every year. His job is no longer as a starter but as a possible closer for the Cubs in 2007. Consider him a very high injury risk and a last resort if you’re feeling desperate. We all know that every year both of these guys are taken, however take them late if you have too. Who knows maybe you can catch lightning in a bottle, just don’t put a lot of stock into them.
Although Wood and Prior are a risk, there are also pitchers that are coming off injuries that are a little more reliable and have higher value on draft day. Randy Johnson I feel tops that list. Yes he ended terribly in New York and wasn’t the same player that pitched in Arizona the first time around. He’s also 43 years old and is coming off back surgery. However, now that he’s back home in Arizona, and back in the National league, I feel like he will be closer to his dominate form that he ever was in a Yankee Uniform. In a league that doesn’t have a lot of great offensive teams, as well as being in a division that doesn’t appear that strong, I think that he will have more dominate starts than he did a year ago. He will miss part of April, however I feel like he will be well rested when it comes time for him to return to the field. He’s a great number 3 or 4 starter on your team and don’t be disappointed if you have to draft him, I feel like he will have a very good season back at home in 2007.
Another interesting arm to take a chance on is that of Jose Contreras. He is still a top 50 pitcher. Despite his struggles in the second half of the year he still started 9-0. His strike out total was a respectable 134. He likes pitching in Chicago, and he continues to do well there. His hamstring will probably bother him in early April due to the cold weather, but I think he will continue to put up respectable numbers in 2007; after all he is a top 50 pitcher. Expect that if you can grab him in the 6th or 7th as a number 3 or 4 starter that you have added great depth to your pitching staff.
Other guys to take notice to: John Patterson who got hurt early in the year, expect him to bounce back and quietly put together a good year for the Washington Nationals. Another guy to look out for in 2007 is Bartolo Colon. This former ace gunslinger has quietly been forgotten about. A former top tier pitcher now 33 years old will more than likely go late in drafts, but whoever gets him will have tremendous depth if he stays healthy.
Finally there are the guys that will return late in the year that will possibly be shots in the arms for some rotations around the league. Topping that list is Pedro Martinez, his injuries bring questions like if he will ever dominate again, but the rotation of the Mets will be so young and full of questions in 2007 that he will have to come back and be effective. Draft him and leave him on your injured list because he will matter late in the year. Another one of these guys is Matt Clement. In a division where there forever is an arms race between the Red Sox and Yankees Clement comes back in July and can help a playoff push that the Red Sox are always in. Another guy out until July is Mark Mulder. He will help the defending champs late in the year, and considering he will be looking for a contract again at the end of the season expect him to pitch with everything he has in order to receive a good pay day. Finally another guy that keeper leagues might be interested in is Francisco Liriano. Out all of 2007, but keeper leagues should expect him to go in their drafts this year. Hopefully he can be as effective as he was pre-injury.
That’s a look at some of the key pitchers in 2007 that are recovering from injuries as well as the impact they will have during the 2007 season.
Two headliners that top the list are two “aces” known as Kerry Wood, and Mark Prior. These two former studs can amaze you with their numbers, as well as break you with all the injuries they find themselves in. While at any time they can return to form the chances of them coming back to what they used to be are very slim.
Prior is expected to compete at spring training for a spot in the rotation, where just a few seasons ago they felt he was the anchor of the rotation. You would anticipate that he would have a leg up on them because he is still young and has a tremendous upside. However, fantasy mangers shouldn’t put any value on him as an early round pick, if he is still around in the later part of the draft he would be a risk worth making. Do not use an early pick on him there are plenty of others out there.
As for Kerry Wood, his injury list is too long to go through, every week it seems like it is something else. His recent jacuzzi incident makes me wonder if he will ever keep himself from being snake bitten every year. His job is no longer as a starter but as a possible closer for the Cubs in 2007. Consider him a very high injury risk and a last resort if you’re feeling desperate. We all know that every year both of these guys are taken, however take them late if you have too. Who knows maybe you can catch lightning in a bottle, just don’t put a lot of stock into them.
Although Wood and Prior are a risk, there are also pitchers that are coming off injuries that are a little more reliable and have higher value on draft day. Randy Johnson I feel tops that list. Yes he ended terribly in New York and wasn’t the same player that pitched in Arizona the first time around. He’s also 43 years old and is coming off back surgery. However, now that he’s back home in Arizona, and back in the National league, I feel like he will be closer to his dominate form that he ever was in a Yankee Uniform. In a league that doesn’t have a lot of great offensive teams, as well as being in a division that doesn’t appear that strong, I think that he will have more dominate starts than he did a year ago. He will miss part of April, however I feel like he will be well rested when it comes time for him to return to the field. He’s a great number 3 or 4 starter on your team and don’t be disappointed if you have to draft him, I feel like he will have a very good season back at home in 2007.
Another interesting arm to take a chance on is that of Jose Contreras. He is still a top 50 pitcher. Despite his struggles in the second half of the year he still started 9-0. His strike out total was a respectable 134. He likes pitching in Chicago, and he continues to do well there. His hamstring will probably bother him in early April due to the cold weather, but I think he will continue to put up respectable numbers in 2007; after all he is a top 50 pitcher. Expect that if you can grab him in the 6th or 7th as a number 3 or 4 starter that you have added great depth to your pitching staff.
Other guys to take notice to: John Patterson who got hurt early in the year, expect him to bounce back and quietly put together a good year for the Washington Nationals. Another guy to look out for in 2007 is Bartolo Colon. This former ace gunslinger has quietly been forgotten about. A former top tier pitcher now 33 years old will more than likely go late in drafts, but whoever gets him will have tremendous depth if he stays healthy.
Finally there are the guys that will return late in the year that will possibly be shots in the arms for some rotations around the league. Topping that list is Pedro Martinez, his injuries bring questions like if he will ever dominate again, but the rotation of the Mets will be so young and full of questions in 2007 that he will have to come back and be effective. Draft him and leave him on your injured list because he will matter late in the year. Another one of these guys is Matt Clement. In a division where there forever is an arms race between the Red Sox and Yankees Clement comes back in July and can help a playoff push that the Red Sox are always in. Another guy out until July is Mark Mulder. He will help the defending champs late in the year, and considering he will be looking for a contract again at the end of the season expect him to pitch with everything he has in order to receive a good pay day. Finally another guy that keeper leagues might be interested in is Francisco Liriano. Out all of 2007, but keeper leagues should expect him to go in their drafts this year. Hopefully he can be as effective as he was pre-injury.
That’s a look at some of the key pitchers in 2007 that are recovering from injuries as well as the impact they will have during the 2007 season.
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